AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton says world is not prepared for what's coming

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The Rise of AI: A Conversation with Nobel Laureate Jeffrey Hinton

In December 2023, Jeffrey Hinton, a leading figure in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), was awarded the Nobel Prize for his groundbreaking work in machine learning. Hinton's contributions to AI have been transformative, helping to pave the way for technologies that are rapidly reshaping industries around the world. His research and innovations have laid the foundation for the development of large language models, such as OpenAI's ChatGPT, which has ignited a fierce AI arms race with billions of dollars being invested in the field over just the past two years.

Brook Silva Braga, a correspondent for CBS, first introduced the world to Hinton in 2023, and he revisited him recently to learn more about his thoughts on the future of AI. Hinton's pioneering work has not only earned him prestigious recognition, but also a unique, independent perspective on the trajectory of AI.

A Dream Come True

Hinton, who spent decades in the academic and tech industries, never dreamed of winning a Nobel Prize—especially in physics. He had always hoped to win one for discovering the intricacies of the brain, but he confesses, "I didn’t figure out how the brain works," despite his ambitious efforts. However, his work in AI and neural networks helped spark a revolution that has had a global impact. His proposal in 1986 to use neural networks to predict the next word in a sequence is the conceptual groundwork for the large-scale language models we see today, such as GPT-4.

When asked if he believed AI would evolve as it has, Hinton admits he didn't foresee such rapid progress. "It happened fast," he says. The advancement of AI has been so swift that Hinton believes it will soon transform industries such as education, healthcare, and even efforts to address climate change. Despite these benefits, he remains deeply concerned about the consequences of such rapid innovation.

The Tiger Cub Metaphor: The Dangers of AI

Hinton likens the rapid development of AI to owning a cute tiger cub: “It's just such a cute tiger… Unless you can be very sure that it’s not going to want to kill you when it’s grown up, you should worry.” The metaphor captures the uncertainty and potential risks that come with the increasing power of AI systems. As much as Hinton recognizes AI's potential to improve lives, he is concerned about the risks it poses if not carefully managed.

Hinton, now 77, predicts that AI could exacerbate authoritarianism, making dictators even more oppressive, and enable hackers to cause far-reaching damage. His fear is that AI could surpass human control, with a 10-20% chance of it becoming a threat to humanity. This is a view he shares with other leading AI figures, including Elon Musk and Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, who have both called for tighter regulation of AI development.

The Race for AI Supremacy

Hinton criticizes the rush to deploy AI technologies without proper safeguards. "People haven’t got it yet… They haven’t understood what’s coming," he says. Hinton points out the recklessness of major tech companies that are racing to develop more advanced AI systems while lobbying against any significant regulations. He believes this pursuit of short-term profits is putting humanity at risk.

Throughout his career, Hinton has often stood apart from the establishment. When AI funding in the U.S. required working with the Defense Department, he moved to Canada. When his field was dismissed as unworkable, he persevered. Hinton has always been a contrarian—a trait he attributes to his family background, particularly his father, a prominent entomologist. This streak of defiance and independent thinking helped shape Hinton’s legendary career.

A Family Legacy

Hinton's scientific curiosity runs deep in his family. His ancestors include George Boole, the mathematician whose algebra laid the foundations for modern computing, and George Everest, the British surveyor who first identified the height of Mount Everest. Hinton’s interest in mechanics and how things work was evident from an early age, and this curiosity has fueled his work in AI.

One of his most enduring qualities is his love for tinkering. Whether it’s fixing broken equipment or experimenting with neural network models, Hinton is always seeking to understand the underlying mechanics. His approach to AI has been hands-on, often involving trial and error to observe and understand how systems behave. His former protégé, Ilya Sutskever, who went on to become OpenAI’s chief scientist, shared this passion for experimentation with Hinton.

The Future of AI and the Need for Regulation

Hinton remains concerned about the future of AI, not just in terms of its potential to surpass human control, but also in its potential misuse by powerful entities. His criticism extends to major tech companies, including Google, Meta, and XAI, which he believes are accelerating their AI research without paying enough attention to safety. Hinton argues that a third of their resources should be dedicated to ensuring AI’s safe and ethical deployment, but unfortunately, he believes that proportion is much lower.

Now on the sidelines of the AI race, Hinton advocates for government regulation to ensure that AI development is done responsibly. However, he is doubtful that significant regulatory changes will come soon. Despite this, he remains resolute in his belief that regulation is essential to avoid an AI-driven disaster.

Facing the Future

When asked if he feels despair about the future, Hinton responds that he does not, but admits that it is hard to fully grasp the scale of the changes unfolding. "It’s very hard to absorb that emotionally," he reflects. The implications of AI’s rapid growth are so profound that it is difficult to truly comprehend the extent of the transformation that could occur in just a few short years.

As AI continues to evolve, Hinton's perspective remains crucial. His pioneering work laid the foundation for the field, and his warnings about its potential dangers should not be ignored. The future of AI holds immense promise, but also considerable risks, and it is up to the global community to ensure that these technologies are developed and deployed responsibly.